FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS 9/29-10/5 (UPDATE #1)

[SportsGuru]

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MEMPHIS over Alabama-B'ham
1* WISCONSIN over Penn State
2* OREGON over Utah
3* GEORGIA TECH over No Carolina St
4* NAVY over Air Force
4* MARYLAND over Clemson
5* SO CALIFORNIA over Arizona State
5* BOWLING GREEN over Central Mich

NFL KEY RELEASES
2* DALLAS over Arizona
3* CAROLINA over New Orleans
4* SAN DIEGO over Jacksonville
4* WASHINGTON over Philadelphia
5* MINNESOTA over Atlanta

Detailed Analysis of Top Rated College Key Selections

Wisconsin 27 - PENN STATE (HC) 17-(12:00)- Lion overland game is finally perking, but Nits were stung for at least 250 RYs in each of their 3 losses, thus check >300 RYs by UW (193 by Smith) vs Illini, which had held all 4 previous foes to under 127 RYs. Badgers had nearly a 14 minute time edge vs Illinois, & suffered 5 TOs in their only loss. And PSt's QB Mills is now hurting (ankle).

MEMPHIS (HC) 38 - Alabama-Birmingham 14-(2:00)- Tigers are only sloppy letdown showing at SoMiss from unbeaten ranks (6 TOs in that loss). Three more TDs for Wimprine LW, & RB Williams provides the balance (led ArkySt 35-6 at the half). Uab can't run, can't stop the run, & owes for LY's gift upset.

Oregon 31 - UTAH 20-(10:00 - espn2)- Both squads in revenge sandwiches. LW, Ducks had 9 TOs, while Utes had 6 takeaways. Even in that debacle, Oregon held potent WashSt to 15-of-35 passing, & just 2.1 ypr. Utah ran a fumble back 80 yds in final 1:33 for cover vs ColoSt, & has the balance behind Smith & Warfield, but Ducks should bounce back from worst loss in since '77.

North Carolina State 31 - GEORGIA TECH (HC) 30-(3:30)- Over 600 yds for that sizzling 'Pack "O" vs UNC, but have allowed 56 FDs & 1,055 yds past 2 wks. Rivers has topped 400 PYs twice in the early going, but that Tech "D" has been decent for the most part. Jackets barely escaped Vandy, but stay in this.

Detailed Analysis of Top Rated College Key Selections

DALLAS 34 - Arizona 17-(1:00)- The man is a genius. Check Dallas' win at the Jets. That's right, a 202-66 RY edge, on the heels of 149-98 & 107-53 advantages in their first 2 games, with Hambrick emerging as the "go-to' back. The only slight reservation here is the fact that the visitor has covered all 3 Cowboy games to date. However, the Cards are just the squad to end such a trend. 'Zona was stung for 34 FDs in its loss to the Rams, & has now allowed 38, 38, 49, 30, 37, 42, & 37 pts in its last 8 RGs! Parcells rarely lets a solid chalk situation get away, & won't here. It's the 'Boys in this contest.

CAROLINA 23 - New Orleans 10-(1:00)-The Panthers are yet anotherpleasant surprise, with their perfect 3-0 log, both SU & ATS. If the exhibition season is included, make it 7-0 both SU & ATS. Their defense has allowed no TDs since the 2nd quarter of their opener, & check 6 blocked kicks thus far. Offensively, they've gotten 142 & 153 RY efforts by Davis in their last 2 outings. Contrast that to the Saints having but one win, along with losses of 17, 15, & 34 pts. On the road, New Orleans has managed only 10 & 12 pts. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS after holding a foe below 15 pts, & are 7-1 ATS as division HFs.

 

[SportsGuru]

PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRENCE

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK:
NORTHWESTERN over Minnesota by 3

NCAA FOOTBALL KEY SELECTIONS
5* AUBURN over Tennessee by 14
4* Oregon St over CALIFORNIA by 6
3* FLORIDA over Mississippi by 24

NFL FOOTBALL KEY SELECTIONS
5* NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee by 13
4* Cleveland over PITTSBURGH by3
3* ATLANTA over Minnesota by 6

NFL TOTALS FOOTBALL KEY SELECTIONS
5* GIANTS UNDER
4* JAGUARS OVER
3* FALCONS OVER

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
NORTHWESTERN over Minnesota by 3
Ain’t it funny how things change in such a short time. Two years ago on this field, Northwestern was a 13-point favorite against Minnesota. Now, a substantial home dog, the Wildcats fight for their life against the powerful attack of the Gophers. NU has been a pesky home underdog in Big Ten competition with 14 covers in its last 20 appearances in that role while Minnesota has lost SU 13 consecutive times in the second of BB road games. Wildcats gained 522 yards in a three-point road loss against the Gophers last year. With Minny off the Penn State win and looking dead ahead to mighty Michigan next week, we call for the upset here today!

5* BEST BET
AUBURN over Tennessee by 14
Yes, we realize that Casey Clausen is a perfect 9-0 SU on the road as the Volunteer QB and we also acknowledge the Vols are a dangerous road team when the price is right. Still, Auburn has a chip on its shoulder after losing its first two games and we feel they are comng to make a statement. Despite the 0-2 start, the Tigers have the talent to win the SEC West division and finish the season with 10 wins. The last time they met Tennessee (in '99) they were whitewashed 24-0 in Knoxville. With the Vols in off an OT win last week (overtime winners that take to the conference road are 39% ATS propositions) and looking ahead to a Georgia revenger next, we'll ride with Tommy Tigers in this redemtion-maker today.

4* BEST BET
Oregon St over CALIFORNIA by 6
California has the dubious distinction of being the worst team in the Pac Ten when favored and seeking revenge. The Bears have covered just two of their last 17 games in that role. Oregon State has cashed 10 of the last 14 against Cal and the Beavers are a rock solid 14-5 ATS in their last 19 tries as an underdog. In their last 27 Conference games, when playing off a SU underdog win, the Bears are 5-22 SU and 10-17 ATS, including nine straight losses. Again.

3* BEST BET
FLORIDA over Mississippi by 24
Another major revenge game finds the reeling Florida Gators in the Swamp waiting to get even with Ole Miss. Last year, Florida laid two TD’s to the Rebels in Oxford and were sent home with a three-point loss, depite yeilding a mere 191 yards. If you’re thinking about taking Eli Manning as a live dog here, think it through, as Florida is 46-5 SU in its last 51 games against league foes (no BB losses) and is a solid 15-2 ATS at home vs the SEC when not favored by 15 or more points. Remember, they're also playing off a previous home loss in the revered Swamp. Rebs were torched for 661 yards in the air. and are still down in the dumps off last minute revenge loss last week . Don’t Miss the boat here.

5* BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee by 13
A courageous effort by a physically maimed Patriot team went for naught in Washington. On the scoreboard, that is. What that effort did do was instill the confidence in the Pats that they have enough players to get the job done. Tennessee’s rout of Pittsburgh gives us extra line value, as Titans are 0-8 ATS as road favs of less than three points off a win. New England grabs the cash for the sixth time in last seven tries as a series host today.

 

[silver7]

Cal is the Dog +1.5! I like OSU anyway.

 

[SportsGuru]

NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
NAVY +16 over AIR FORCE

NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4★ Michigan over IOWA
3★ Tennessee over AUBURN
3★ WASH ST over Arizona
2★ MARYLAND over Clemson
2★ NEBRASKA over Troy St
2★ Akron (+) over MIAMI (OH)

NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4★ CAROLINA over New Orleans
3★ PHILADELPHIA over Washington
2★ DALLAS over Arizona
2★ KANSAS CITY over Denver

NFL TOTALS:
3★ Lions/49ers Under 42'
3★ Bengals/Bills Under 41'*
3★ Cardinals/Cowboys Over 38
2★ Redskins/Eagles Over 39'
2★ Saints/Panthers Over 38*

 

[SportsGuru]

THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!Technical Play of the Week
NC STATE over Georgia Tech
The Wolfpack stands a solid 14-7 vs. the spread away from Raleigh since HC Chuck Amato arrived in 2000, and also hasn’t dropped back-to-back games against the line since the 2001 campaign. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are just 4-9 vs. the line their last 13 as host.

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY RELEASES:
MICHIGAN STATE by 25 over Indiana
AKRON Plus over Miami-Ohio
TEXAS TECH by 18 over Texas A&M

SUMMARY OF NFL KEY RELEASES:
N.Y. GIANTS by 10 over Miami
CLEVELAND by 3 over Pittsburgh
OVER 43 total points in the Detroit-San Francisco game

ANALYSIS OF KEY SELECTIONS

NY GIANTS 23 - Miami 13—Miami def. front will give the rebuilding N.Y. OL a few problems—for a while. But the greater versatility of the Giant offense— featuring inside & outside running, two speedy WRs & 1 terrific TE—will eventually win the day on home field (Dolphins 3-8 SU last 11 away). Once Travis Henry went down for Buffalo, Dolphin defense was able to zero in on Drew Bledsoe and pound with Ricky Williams (Miami had ball 40:50!). That trick won’t work here vs. Tiki, Kerry, Amani & Jeremy (and, of course, Ike). (96-NY Giants +7 17-7...SR: NY Giants 3-1)

OVER 43 Points SAN FRANCISCO 34 - Detroit 20—Steve Mariucci back in S.F., from whence he was somewhat surprisingly fired after LY. However, with a “baby” QB learning on the fly, a usually minimal ground game, and a top receiver who is a rookie (Chas. Rodgers), can’t expect “Mooch” to match points with Jeff Garcia (3 ints. last week!), Terrell Owens & buddies. Niners have been an unreliable favorite (1-9 last 10), but nearly all of that was Mariucci’s doing! Owens again ripping coaches for not getting the ball. Mooch (Detroit has lost 3 CBs) is hoping (praying?) the Niners don’t give it to him. offense rules this one. (01-SAN FRANCISCO -8 21-13...SR: San Francisco 31-27-1)

*Cleveland 23 - PITTSBURGH 20—These two engaged in a wild playoff shootout LY (Holcomb was at QB for Cleveland), which resulted in the third 3-point victory for Steelers over the Browns of the season! Browns love to play ’em close, with 12 of their 17 games LY decided in final minute or OT. Cleveland is 9-2 vs. spread last 11 games on the road! Most importantly, Pittsburgh defense proved vulnerable to a spread offense once against last week (Steve McNair hit 15 of 16). Whether it’s Couch or Holcomb at QB, Browns have the receivers to hurt host again. CABLE TV—ESPN

MICHIGAN STATE 38 - Indiana 13—Under enthusiastic guidance of HC John L. Smith, there’s less chance MSU will let down, considering earlier loss to La. Tech. Spartan defense is obviously vastly improved, allowing 1.7 ypc this season, and holding ND & Iowa to 1 TD each. Youthful Indiana has taken some attrition on offense and is just 1-8-1 last 10 vs. the points. MSU QB Smoker should & WR Shabaj slice up Hoosier 2ndary.

H Akron 30 - MIAMI-OHIO 38—Respect Miami-O QB Roethlisberger’s ability, but vet Akron QB Frye and his experienced crew can move the ball as well. Zip RB Hendry has 490 YR in his last 4 games, while Frye has completed 68% and averaged 333 YP this season. Frye hurt Miami 2ndary LY, and that unit has been vulnerable this season.

TEXAS TECH 45 - Texas A&M 27— TT has 1394 yds. of offense (1247 passing) last two games! Too bad Raiders had those pesky 7 TOs. A&M scoring 25 ppg, but Coach Fran’s defense (26 ppg allowed in 2nd H last 3 games) lacks the depth & playmakers of previous Aggie “Wrecking Crews.” Not good that A&M (1-8 last 9 as road dog) gave up 5 TDP last week vs. Pittsburgh, considering Tech QB Symons has 15 TY.

 

[SportsGuru]

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
11* PHILADELPHIA over Washington
10* LOUISIANA TECH over Boise St.
10* OKLAHOMA over Iowa St.
10* OKLAHOMA ST. over La.-Lafayette
10* FRESNO ST. over Colorado St.

11 *PHILADELPHIA over Washington 27-10
Finally, Philadelphia QB McNabb looked like himself in leading Eagles to an upset at Buffalo that could prove a turning point in Philly season. McNabb completed 18-of-29 passes with no ints., and repeatedly scrambled away from trouble (9 rushes for 47 yds.). Look for the Eagles to respond with another significant effort returning home in their first divisional game. Washington has been somewhat fortunate in its 3-1 start, catching the Jets and Atlanta without their starting QBs and beating a New England team last week that has lost the services of 5 defensive starters since the preseason. The Eagles have been a solid play against the points when facing the Redskins, logging an 11-3-2 mark last 16 meetings. Philly HC Andy Reid saw a good deal of progress in several areas in Buffalo, as the new Eagle DBs were much improved, speedy 2nd-year RB Westbrook (from Villanova) carried 11 times for 97 yds. and the OL did a better job than in first two contests. Look for McNabb to key another win.

10* LOUISIANA TECH over Boise St.
La. Tech rested and ready for its WAC home opener after bye last week, while Boise State (1-2 vs. spread) coming off tougher than expected home win over Wyoming. Fast-paced Bronco attack, which scouts say misses graduated versatile RB Forsey (32 TDs LY!), has yet to find same kind of rhythm as LY when it rolled to 46 ppg and 502 ypg. In the 3 games since opening blowout of Div. I-AA Idaho State, BSU offense has scored only 9 TDs while racking up nearly 100 ypg fewer than LY. Bulldog sr. QB Luke McCown has started 35 games and passed for 74 TDs & more than 10,000 yds. in his career. McCown (436 YP in road upset of Mich. State) has plethora of receiving targets to attack vulnerable BSU 2ndary (307 ypg passing). And sr. RB Ralph Davis (6.3 ypc last 3 games) providing solid ground support. Rejuvenated, veteran Tech defense has allowed only 5 TDs in 4 games! No big surprise if Bulldogs (2-0-1 vs. spread) come away with SU win in friendly Ruston.

10* OKLAHOMA over Iowa St.
Oklahoma has had a week off to rest and prepare for this Big XII opener against Iowa State. Vet Sooner defense, which is holding foes to just 4.2 yds. per pass attempt against TGS-rated teams and boasts 9 returning starters from last year’s crew, probably can’t wait to take its shots at the Cyclones’ RS frosh QB Austin Flynn. ISU also lost its leading returning rusher Hiawatha Rutland to a knee injury suffered against N.
Illinois. Remember, the Sooner “D” completely shut down the Cyclone attack led by graduated star Seneca Wallace last season, holding ISU to just 60 total yards. Oklahoma has made a habit of dominating games early, outscoring foes by an aggregate 358-84 in the first halves of games the last 18 contests. Although the Sooners reportedly have their best receiving corps ever, word from bye week workouts is that record-setting return man and starting CB Perkins would get some snaps at wideout against ISU. Cyclone defense has 11 frosh and sophs in 2-deep, and that inexperience spells trouble facing potent, speedy OU attack keyed by sr. QB Jason White (11 TDP, 65%, 8th in pass efficiency).

10* OKLAHOMA ST. over La.-Lafayette
Terrible situation for Lafayette. Oklahoma State has some of the best quality, best-balanced, and deepest offensive talent in the Big XII. And, as 7 TDC performance by A-A WR Rashaun Woods at SMU illustrates, Cowboy coach Les Myles isn’t hesitant to use that talent. Worse yet for the Ragin’ Cajuns, OSU had last week off to heal all its bumps and bruises, while Lafayette absorbed more than a few in 44-23 thumping at North Texas (the Cajuns rushed for only 27 yards and gave up three safeties). Can’t expect much improvement from the Lafayette defense, which returned only 2 starters (and none in the secondary). CKO scouts report that in the Cajuns’ 48-14 covering loss TY at Minnesota, Gopher coach Mason cleared the bench in the third Q (Gophers led 41-7 at the H) in order to preserve his good players for last weekend’s visit to Penn State. With the excellent triplets of jr. QB Fields, sr. RB Bell (6 rush TDs in 4 games), and WR Woods, Cowboys are 10-3 vs. spread last 13 games overall.

10* FRESNO ST. over Colorado St.
Western scouts see no reason why well-coached, overachieving Fresno State (3-0-1 vs. spread) can’t “hang” every step of the way with banged-up, underachieving Colo. State (1-3 against line). Road-warrior Bulldogs hardly intimidated by this venue after already making trips to powerful Tennessee and top-ranked Oklahoma. Top QB Pinegar is expected to get some snaps after missing first 5 games with a torn pec muscle. Pinegar and sr. QB Grady will severely test suspect CSU stop unit (285 ypg passing), which is dangerously thin at LB after losing top defender sr. OLB Pauly in last game. And soph TBs Dwayne Wright & Bryson (combined 547 YR & 6 TDs in last 3 games) have emerged as dynamic ground duo for FSU. Can’t count on mistake-prone CSU attack (16 TOs in first 5 games) and tempermental QB Van Pelt (briefly benched in home loss to Utah last week) opening much, if any, margin. Technicals support fundamentals—Rams only 3-11 vs. spread as home fav. since 2000; FSU 11-2 against points last 13 as dog.

TOTALS: Miami-New York Giants UNDER (38½)—Both teams will try to play keep-away; long plays will be at a minimum...Denver-Kansas City OVER (48; est.)—Denver loves to get off to fast starts; series “over” last 3; neither undeafeated side will quit firing in battle for first in AFC West.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): COLORADO (-20; est.) at Baylor—CKO scouts report Colorado healthier this week; Buffs fired up for Big XII opener vs. team they led 34-0 at the half LY...ALABAMA (+10½) at Georgia—Tide has suffered some tough-to-swallow losses, but Bama in every game; Georgia RBs & receivers down just a little bit...BOWLING GREEN (-27) over Central Michigan—Bowling Green, back in its own league after splitting at Purdue and Ohio State, has more than enough firepower to swamp Chippewas...CAROLINA (-7½) vs. New Orleans—Saints injured on defense; have
covered only 1 of last 7 games; N.O. has played only 1 good half of ball TY (2nd vs. Houston)...TAMPA BAY (-4½) vs. Indianapolis—Last week’s trouncing of Saints keeps spread down a little in this one; make no mistake, Bucs defense still vastly superior.

 

[drunkguy]

You don't track these guys do you? Wondering what their ATS record is...

 

[SportsGuru]

I DO, I HAVE A CHART BUT I CANNOT POST FOR FORMATTING REASONS. PLAYBOOK IS REALLY CLOSE TO 70% RIGHT NOW!

 

[Big_Orange]

looking good sports guru. I know Marc Lawrence has been smoking. He was 5-1 last week.

 

[SportsGuru]

NORTHCOASTS POWERLAYS

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:
5* TEXAS 38 KANSAS STATE 18

4* AKRON (+) 27 MIAMI (OHIO) 44
4* LA TECH (+) 12 BOISE STATE 22
4* MICHIGAN 22 IOWA 16
4* NC STATE 30 GEORGIA TECH 20
4* BOWLING GREE 46 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 13
4* PURDUE 31 ILLINOIS 11
4* WASHINGTON STATE 45 ARIZONA 4
4* OKLAHOMA 43 IOWA STATE 17
4* TULSA (+) 29 HAWAII 32
4* NEBRASKA 35 TROY STATE 2
4* TEMPLE (+) 21 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 20

3* FRESNO STATE (+) 24 COLORADO STATE 25
3* GEORGIA 24 ALABAMA 12
3* WASHINGTON 27 UCLA 23
3* NORTHERN ILLINOIS 33 OHIO 7
3* BYU 13 SAN DIEGO STATE 10
3* IDAHO (+) 22 NEW MEXICO STATE 22

2* KENT STATE 26 BALL STATE 23
2* FLORIDA 41 MISSISSIPPI 27
1* MICHIGAN STATE 21 INDIANA 14

1* RICE 32 SAN JOSE STATE 28
1* OKLAHOMA STATE 44 LOUISIANA-LFT 6

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:
4* COWBOYS 28 CARDINALS 13
3* PANTHERS 27 SAINTS 14
1* CHIEFS 28 BRONCOS 23
1* 49ERS 27 LIONS 18